Trying to predict the winners for The Game Awards is a strange game in itself. You have to think like the voters, who are half-focused on what’s objectively great and half on what game has the best “story” for the year.
And as we go through the categories, you’ll see a clear trend: once a true powerhouse shows up, every other game is just fighting for the leftovers.
Setting the Stage for the Night
Let’s be clear from the start: this doesn’t feel like Nintendo’s year. Even with the new Switch 2 and their usual lineup of great games, nothing has that unbeatable feel. Mario Kart World was polished and had a lot of hype, but that excitement faded fast, leaving a sense that it didn’t quite deliver.
That opening at the top means one game can easily sweep the awards, and for 2025, I think that game is Clair Obscur: Expedition 33.
The Opening Acts: Esports and Most Anticipated
When the show starts with categories like Best Esports Athlete, I’ll be honest, I usually tune out. It’s the same few games every year, and I don’t really follow the pro scene closely enough to have a strong opinion. My personal, emotional pick this year is a streamer named Burnt Peanut—he’s the funniest guy I’ve ever watched, so he gets my vote.
Most Anticipated Game, on the other hand, isn’t even a contest. You and I both know Grand Theft Auto VI is in a completely different league. The only real question is a joke about when we’ll actually get to play it—I’m throwing out 2029 with a smile. This is the one category where there’s no upset to predict; it’s just the obvious winner.
The First Big Upset
Best Adaptation is where things get interesting, because your personal taste can really clash with popular opinion. I thought The Last of Us Season 1 was a fantastic show, but Season 2 lost me so completely I couldn’t even finish the first episode.
That’s why my pick goes to the Devil May Cry anime. For me, it’s not just a great adaptation—it’s one of the best anime series I’ve seen, period. The original game was my first big obsession outside of Nintendo, so I’m really confident it has a real shot. I’m calling this as an early win, though a more mainstream show could always cause an upset.
Multiplayer Mayhem
Best Multiplayer is packed this year, but one name stands above the rest: Arc Raiders. The reason is simple—this game exploded on Steam. I’ve had so many fun late-night sessions with friends, and it’s become a regular feature on my favorite streams. It feels like a real cultural moment.
Split Fiction, the spiritual successor to It Takes Two, is a fantastic co-op game that’s perfect to play with someone close to you. Peak is another strong indie contender. But my prediction firmly stays with Arc Raiders as the game that captured the multiplayer scene this year.
Sports, Strategy, and Family Games
Best Sports/Racing is always a weird category because it mixes two very different worlds. Mario Kart World is beautiful but feels light on lasting content. Still, I think its polish will carry it to a win.
For Best Sim/Strategy, the new Sid Meier’s game is getting a lot of negative reviews from fans on Steam. Meanwhile, the Final Fantasy Tactics remaster is a timeless masterpiece. Sometimes, a beloved classic beats something new.
Best Family Game is where Nintendo usually wins. Lego Voyages is just okay, and Split Fiction is a great co-op experience. But my prediction is Donkey Kong.
Here’s the inside logic: Donkey Kong is nominated for Game of the Year but probably won’t win. So, this is the category where the awards show “throws it a bone” to make sure it doesn’t go home empty-handed. You’re basically watching the strategy of consolation prizes play out in real time.
The Heart of the Awards: RPGs and My Game of the Year
When we get to Best RPG, you see my entire prediction strategy laid out. I have one simple rule: if a game isn’t nominated for Game of the Year, it almost never wins Best RPG.
That’s why for 2025, games like Avowed and Monster Hunter Wilds are out of the running. The real contest is between Kingdom Come and Clair Obscur: Expedition 33.
And I need to be clear: Expedition 33 isn’t just another nominee for me. It’s one of the best games I have ever played. The turn-based combat feels as smart as Persona, the timing mechanics remind me of Mario & Luigi, and every character feels completely unique.
This is my love letter to the game: the music is incredible, the painterly art style is stunning, and the story—about a mysterious entity that makes people vanish—is completely gripping. It launched at a mid-range price from a technically indie studio, but it outperformed many AAA games.
It’s also deeply personal for me. I played it during night shifts while taking care of my newborn son. It was his first video game, and that’s a memory I’ll carry for life. It’s my absolute, emotional lock to win Best RPG.
Action, Adventure, and the Indie Giants
Best Action-Adventure is a tough category. Death Stranding 2 is a massive, niche experience. Indiana Jones was fun, but I didn’t love it. That leaves Hollow Knight: Silksong as the real challenger. It was a huge hit at launch, even if its intense difficulty turned some players away. For me, it’s a very close second for Game of the Year.
Meanwhile, Best Action Game looks like a clear win for Hades 2. Doom: The Dark Ages was a letdown, but Hades 2 delivers triple the content of the first game. It’s not just a lock for Best Action; it’s a serious Game of the Year contender.
The Supporting Categories
For the smaller categories, my picks get a bit more practical:
VR/AR: I didn’t have much time for VR this year, but from what I’ve seen, Marvel’s Deadpool seems like the safe bet based on its buzz.
Mobile Game: I’ll be honest—I haven’t even heard of most of these, so I can’t make a real call here.
Best Debut Indie: This is easy. As much as I’ve heard great things about Blueprints, it’s not up for Game of the Year. Expedition 33 is, so it’s my automatic pick.
Best Indie Game: Again, this has to go to Expedition 33. It’s just that good.
Audio, Art, and Story
Best Ongoing Game: My heart goes to No Man’s Sky. It gets another massive, free update every single year. It might not win often, but it always deserves to.
Best Performance: I’m leaning toward Ben Starr, though any of the nominees could take it.
Best Audio Design: I’ll give this to Death Stranding 2. I have to spread the love around so Expedition 33 doesn’t win everything in my head!
Best Score/Music: But here, Expedition 33 dominates. The music in one boss fight was so good I put the controller down just to listen. It was a perfect moment.
The Big Ones: Art, Narrative, and Direction
Best Art Direction: Death Stranding 2 is visually stunning, but Expedition 33‘s unique painterly world is my pick to win.
Best Narrative: The story in Expedition 33 is absolutely unmatched this year. Nothing else even comes close.
Best Game Direction: Again, this has to go to Expedition 33. The vision is just too strong.
The Final Bet: Game of the Year
By the time we get to Game of the Year, the conversation is over for me. Clair Obscur: Expedition 33 is a once-in-a-generation game. Death Stranding 2 is too niche, and Silksong is the only other real challenger, but it still falls just short.
I’m so confident that I’m putting my money where my mouth is. I’m reviving an old bit: I’m betting $1,000 that Expedition 33 wins Game of the Year. If it doesn’t, I’ll give $1,000 to a subscriber and post the proof.
That’s how much this game means to me. It’s not just a winner; it’s a game that captured me completely, and I’m willing to bet real money on its victory.
